HORIZON SHIELD · Concept Proposal

A Design Where All 12 Players Win in the Long Run

Changing the middleman economy of Japan's renovation industry — at the structural level.

Toshikatsu Oga · Representative Director, The HORIZONs Co., Ltd.
30 years a carpenter · Author of JCCDB · ORCID 0009-0000-9180-903X
The conclusion first

What this is about, in three lines

1

The industry has a built-in middleman economy

Of the 1,000,000 yen a homeowner pays, about 650,000 disappears into costs unrelated to the actual work.

2

In this design, 10 of 12 players gain

Homeowners, craftsmen, builders, manufacturers, communities, government, lenders — all gain.

3

For the remaining 2, new roles

Aggregator platforms and material wholesalers are welcomed not as enemies, but as partners in change.

The problem

What is happening in renovation today

Invisible fees are eating into the homeowner's money.

Homeowner
pays ¥1,000,000
→
Aggregator site
−¥200,000
→
Prime contractor
−¥200,000
→
Subcontractor
−¥150,000
→
Wholesaler
−¥100,000
→
Actual craftsman
¥350,000
¥650,000of the ¥1,000,000 paid disappears into costs unrelated to the work.

* Figures are representative of field experience; actual cases vary.

Our design

The same ¥1,000,000, redistributed

Remove the middleman economy, and the money flows to the work and the craftsmen.

Homeowner
pays ¥1,000,000
→
Our organization
¥50,000
operating cost
→
Craftsmen + builders
¥550,000
higher take-home
→
Materials + work
¥400,000
direct from makers
¥950,000of the same ¥1,000,000 goes to craftsmen, work, and materials.

* A representative distribution; actual figures vary by project.

The players

Everyone involved — 12 players

No one overlooked.

01
Homeowner
people doing renovation or new builds
02
Craftsmen
those who do the actual work
03
Small builders
local small construction firms
04
General contractors
major prime contractors
05
Aggregator sites
major referral platforms
06
Material wholesaler
building-material distribution
07
Manufacturers
major building-material makers
08
Our team
the operators of this system
09
HORIZON SHIELD
the audit engine
10
Local communities
condo residents, associations
11
Government
ministries and municipalities
12
Lenders
renovation-loan providers
10 players gain 2 players transition to a new role
Player by player

Who gains, and how

Ten players gain directly. Here is each one — today, and under this design.

01

Homeowner

people wanting renovation or a new build

Today

  • Of ¥1,000,000 paid, ~¥650,000 vanishes into middleman costs
  • No idea who is paid how much
  • Cannot detect inflated quotes themselves
  • A site's "recommended" firm may not actually be good
  • Takes a loan, paying interest on the inflated amount too

In this design

  • Of ¥1,000,000 paid, ¥950,000 goes straight to work and craftsmen
  • AI judges whether a quote is truly fair
  • Choose from craftsmen certified as not inflating
  • Every cost visible — a transparent estimate
  • Loans only against the fair amount
02

Craftsmen

on-site work — carpentry, electrical, plumbing, etc.

Today

  • No sales skills, no work
  • Via referral sites, they bear the referral fee
  • Sub-subcontracting cuts take-home pay deeply
  • Good work has no mechanism to be recognized
  • On a ¥1,000,000 job, take-home can be just ¥250,000

In this design

  • No referral fees — higher take-home
  • Good work made visible through certification
  • Work comes from skill, not salesmanship
  • On a ¥1,000,000 job, take-home ¥450,000 (up 80%)
  • Share information and materials via a peer network
03

Small builders (SMEs)

local small construction firms

Today

  • Thin margins as a subcontractor to majors
  • Margins eroded at 2nd/3rd-tier subcontracting
  • Want to reach homeowners directly, but sales cost is high
  • The better the regional builder, the harder to win nationwide work
  • Succession problem — unattractive to the next generation

In this design

  • Reach homeowners directly as a prime contractor
  • Escape the subcontracting-margin structure
  • Win work from anywhere via a national network
  • Higher craftsman pay makes hiring easier
  • Becomes a trade the next generation can be proud of
04

General contractors

major prime construction firms

Today

  • Subcontracting layers too deep to control site quality
  • Exposed to criticism over exploitative subcontracting
  • Accountability for accidents is tangled
  • Trust with homeowners diluted by the subcontracting chain
  • Must respond to public criticism of margin-skimming

In this design

  • Shorter layers improve visibility of site quality
  • Accountability for accidents becomes clear
  • Can promote transparent subcontractor management
  • Social trust restored
  • Resistance at first, but a long-term winner
The honest part — player 05

Aggregator sites

A player that may lose part of its current business. We don't hide it.

Honestly — this player loses its current business.

Referral fees from builders (often 10–30% of the contract) disappear in this design.

But they are not enemies. We build new roles together.

Route A
Become comparison media
Not referral fees from builders, but reader fees for certification data. Premium access to lists of certified, quality builders. Not ad-driven media, but trusted media — value preserved.
Route B
Certification-support partner
Consulting and training that help builders earn certification. · From sales to skill-improvement support · Run training programs · Make craftsman skills visible Become central to raising industry quality.
Route C
A partner in change
Transition gradually over five years. Business does not vanish overnight. We propose directly to leadership. Not as an enemy, but as an ally in change.
The honest part — player 06

Material wholesaler

Also loses part of its distribution margin. And also has a way forward.

Honestly — this player also loses part of its current business.

The distribution margin between makers and builders is compressed by joint purchasing.

But there are three paths to transition.

Path A
Logistics specialist
From a margin model to a freight model. As the logistics arm of joint purchasing, earn freight from both makers and the operating body.
Path B
Construction-management support
Not just moving materials, but managing delivery, inventory, and on-site logistics. An indispensable partner to the system.
Path C
Complement direct sales
Handle the small-volume, last-mile deliveries to small builders that makers don't want to do.
Player by player

The remaining players

Manufacturers, our team, the engine, communities, government, lenders — each gains too.

07

Manufacturers

major building-material manufacturers

Today

  • Can only distribute through wholesalers
  • Cannot control end-user prices
  • Cannot tell when products are used in inflated quotes
  • Hard to deliver brand value directly to homeowners
  • Forced to push large inventory onto wholesalers

In this design

  • Large joint orders enable planned production
  • Compressed wholesale margins make end prices competitive
  • Brand value reaches homeowners directly
  • Visibility into how their products are used
  • A clear winner, after years of wholesale margin-skimming
08

Our team (the operators)

The HORIZONs Co., Ltd. / HORIZON SHIELD

Today

  • A small company; awareness is the challenge
  • No clear path to scale yet
  • Want to change the structure, but lack the power
  • Publish data like JCCDB, but it is underused

In this design

  • A sustainable base from audit and operating fees
  • A central position in industry transformation
  • JCCDB realizes its true value
  • Recognition as the architect of a win-for-all design
  • Trusted precisely because it does not monopolize profit
09

HORIZON SHIELD

AI audit engine (KIRA) / JCCDB database

Today

  • It exists, but awareness is limited
  • Paid diagnoses are limited in number
  • JCCDB usage is also limited
  • Effectively an unused tool

In this design

  • The industry standard for objective certification
  • A tool craftsmen and builders want to be certified by
  • JCCDB becomes the industry-standard database
  • Infrastructure relied on by homeowners, government, lenders
  • Established as social infrastructure
10

Local communities

condo residents, neighborhood and resident associations

Today

  • Opaque use of repair-reserve funds
  • Contractor selection left to the management company
  • Residents' wishes hard to reflect
  • High-rise management problems are now a social issue

In this design

  • Repair-reserve funds used transparently
  • The community itself selects from certified firms
  • Residents' decisions reflected in building management
  • The building's long-term value is protected
  • A model case for new resident self-governance
11

Government

national ministries and municipalities

Today

  • Long troubled by the opacity of construction
  • Can prosecute, but cannot reform the structure
  • Margin-skimming is a problem even in public works
  • Tightening regulation is the only tool

In this design

  • Transparency advances, led by the private sector
  • Problems solved by structural reform, not prosecution
  • Applicable to public works as well
  • A globally visible model of construction reform from Japan
  • Aligned with the direction ministries want to drive
12

Lenders

renovation-loan providers and regional banks

Today

  • Risk of lending against inflated quotes
  • Collateral value hard to assess
  • Cannot verify quote validity for borrower protection
  • Risk of being dragged into renovation disputes

In this design

  • Lend only against fair quotes
  • Healthier loan portfolios
  • Restored trust in the renovation-loan market
  • In fact, a potential greatest ally
  • Co-develop a fair-amount lending certification scheme
How it stays fair

Five principles to uphold

No winner-takes-all. To keep a design where everyone wins in the long run.

1

Make no enemies; bring them in

Never publicly call aggregators or wholesalers "enemies." Invite them as partners and design new roles together.

2

Move in stages, no rush

A five-year plan. At each stage, offer every player their next role as we proceed.

3

Keep absolute transparency

Fully disclose who takes how much. Visible to homeowners, craftsmen, and makers alike.

4

No winner-takes-all

The operators do not monopolize profit. Governed by member vote — we hold one vote too.

5

Define accountability for failure

Spell out accountability for accidents and disputes at the design stage. No one escapes; no one bears it all alone.

The road

Five-year plan — step by step

Not a dream. Each stage builds on the proven data of the last.

Stage 1
Now

Verify estimates

A homeowner sends a quote → the AI judges it. Already live.

Stage 2
6–12 months

Make good craftsmen visible

Craftsmen rated as not inflating are made visible through certification.

Stage 3
1–2 years

Community self-governance

Residents and homeowners select their own work from certified firms.

Stage 4
2–3 years

Peer certification of craftsmen

A mechanism where certified craftsmen verify each other's work.

Stage 5
3–5 years

Joint purchasing and fair reward

Joint purchasing direct from makers. Real reward for good craftsmen.

Each stage's proven data becomes the foundation of trust for the next. No skipping ahead.

Conclusion

"Everyone wins" is possible — with conditions

Ten of twelve players clearly gain. The other two are offered a chance to transition. "Everyone wins instantly" is impossible — but "everyone wins in the long run" is achievable.

The revolutionary's path — not ours

  • Make enemies
  • Try to destroy in the short term
  • Publicly vow to crush the aggregators
  • Get crushed by the resistance
  • Result: no one wins

The reformer's path — our choice

  • Build alliances
  • Pursue structural change over the long run
  • Ask: "will you become a partner in change?"
  • Proceed in stages over five years
  • Result: all 12 players win